The Fontan epidemic: Population projections from the Australia and New Zealand Fontan Registry

C Schilling; K Dalziel; R Nunn; K Du Plessis; WY Shi; D Celermajer; D Winlaw; RG Weintraub; LE Grigg; DJ Radford; A Bullock; TL Gentles; GR Wheaton; T Hornung; RN Justo; Y D'Udekem

Journal article

The Fontan epidemic: Population projections from the Australia and New Zealand Fontan Registry

C Schilling, K Dalziel, R Nunn, K Du Plessis, WY Shi, D Celermajer, D Winlaw, RG Weintraub, LE Grigg, DJ Radford, A Bullock, TL Gentles, GR Wheaton, T Hornung, RN Justo, Y D'Udekem

International Journal of Cardiology | ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD | Published : 2016

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.05.035

Abstract

Background The number and age demographic of the future Fontan population is unknown. Methods Population projections were calculated probabilistically using microsimulation. Mortality hazard rates for each Fontan recipient were calculated from survivorship of 1353 Fontan recipients in the Australia and New Zealand Fontan Registry, based on Fontan type, age at Fontan, gender and morphology. Projected rates of new Fontan procedures were generated from historical rates of Fontan procedures per population births. Results At the end of 2014, the living Fontan population of Australia and New Zealand was 1265 people from an Australian and New Zealand regional population of 28 million (4.5 per 100,0..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Chris Schilling Author

Kim Dalziel Author

Robert Weintraub Author

Yves D'Udekem D'Acoz Author

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Grants

Awarded by Murdoch Children's Research Institute

Funding Acknowledgements

The Australia and New Zealand Fontan Registry is funded by grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC; Project Grants 1012241, 1047923, 1065794). The authors acknowledge support provided to the Murdoch Childrens Research Institute by the Victorian Government's Operational Infrastructure Support Program. Yves d'Udekem is a NHMRC Clinical Practitioner Fellow (1082186) as well as the Principal Investigator and recipient of the NHMRC Partnership Project (1076849). The Victorian Government's Operational Infrastructure Support Program supported this research project.